Technological innovation is reshaping the modern battlefield, with Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) leading the charge in integrating conventional warfare with electromagnetic disruption, cyber attacks, digital influence campaigns, and unmanned and autonomous systems. These advancements are putting increasing pressure on frontline NATO states, as illustrated by recent Russian violations of Polish, Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, and Romanian airspace, as well as GPS spoofing and sabotage of critical undersea infrastructure in the Baltic and Arctic regions.
The shift toward multi-domain warfare, where ambiguity and deniability are key assets, is evident in the growing use of drone warfare. Ukraine, for instance, has become a world-leading drone producer and pioneer of maritime and autonomous systems since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022. The PRC has also recently unveiled new unmanned systems capabilities for use in a Taiwan contingency, signaling its intent to operationalize lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Military technological modernization in the PRC and Russia builds on decades of Cold War-era research, illicit procurement networks, and recent battlefield experience in Ukraine. However, military technology procurement remains a challenge. The PRC and Russia are exploiting procurement loopholes and legacy networks to accelerate the acquisition of military technology. Beijing continues to use middlemen and shell companies to circumvent export controls, while Moscow faces constraints from sanctions, talent shortages, and budget limitations that hinder sustained innovation and production.
The development of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled command systems, autonomous platforms, and integrated air defenses depends on state investment. Russia and the PRC are not merely modernizing their military technology and capabilities; they are reengineering the operational environment to exploit systemic vulnerabilities in Western defense architectures. Deterrence in this environment will depend less on mass and more on agility, resilience, and adaptability to counter new and evolving technological threats before they escalate.
The PRC is leveraging AI to enhance its military capabilities and strategic advantages using Western technology. This includes Meta’s open-source model Llama (Large Language Model Meta AI), which is a preferred model for building features tailored to military and security applications. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is showing signs of adapting to the era of AI, emphasizing intelligentized warfare, prioritizing information dominance, algorithms, and systemic disruption over population, resources, or industrial capacity.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine marked the first major conflict with widespread AI use. Ukraine, supported by U.S. AI firms, successfully countered Russian forces, prompting Russia to accelerate AI integration in command systems, drones, and air defense networks.
Ukraine has become the largest producer of tactical and long-range drones in the world. The country’s defense sector has grown by 350 percent since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Low-cost, rapid-production systems such as AI-driven drones, robotic ground vehicles, and long-range missiles such as the FP-5 give Ukraine asymmetric advantages. Ukraine’s advanced maritime drones, such as the Magura and SeaBaby, have demonstrated high effectiveness, sinking ships, striking aircraft, and even damaging infrastructure like the Kerch Bridge.
Russia is increasing the production and use of Shahed-type kamikaze drones against Ukraine, constantly improving their effectiveness and ability to break through air defenses. Moscow is also developing and testing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) featuring AI for auto-targeting and computer vision, which it may transfer to allies such as the PRC and Iran in exchange for resources and weapons. Chinese military experts are incorporating lessons from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on the use and importance of drones and autonomous systems, which is reshaping the PLA’s strategic planning and operational doctrine.
Chinese strategists emphasize the need to develop stealthier drones, robust anti-jamming capabilities (such as fiber-optic guidance), and autonomous ground logistics systems to enhance battlefield sustainability and reduce vulnerabilities in future combat scenarios.
Chinese military strategists view commercial space as an essential strategic force in future conflict, as the PRC begins to narrow the gap in its space capabilities relative to the United States. The first national-level long-term plan for space science development from the PRC sets the goal of becoming a global leader by 2050, by which point it aims to lead in revolutionary scientific breakthroughs and deep-space missions, and to become the global center for space science.
Russia’s state-owned space corporation, Roscosmos, controls eight percent of the Russian military-industrial market and provides the Russian military with technology such as rockets, spacecraft, and satellite systems. Roscosmos faces debilitating challenges, however, including financial difficulties, inefficiencies, and the loss of Western partnerships since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Kyiv has recently prioritized developing a national satellite communication system as a key element of Command and Control and military technology development. Ukraine is searching for alternatives to Starlink since the sudden connectivity losses during the maritime drone attack on Sevast