At the Africa Aerospace and Defence (AAD) 2024 Conference on Future Warfare, Dr. Robin Blake from the University of Pretoria’s Department of Political Science delivered a compelling argument for the cautious integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in military decision-making. While AI has advanced to the point where it can decide to act, Blake emphasized the critical need to keep human judgment at the forefront of military operations.
Blake highlighted the potential of AI to revolutionize combat decision-making through its ability to collect, process, and analyze data at unprecedented speeds. Drawing on the OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act) loop—a framework developed by United States Air Force Colonel John Boyd during the Korean War—Blake explained how AI could significantly accelerate the decision-making process. The OODA loop is a critical tool in military strategy, enabling commanders to quickly adapt to changing battlefield conditions.
“AI can provide immense support in the Observe and Orient phases by recognizing patterns and potentially predicting outcomes,” Blake said. However, he cautioned against relying solely on AI for the Decide and Act phases. “Humans must remain involved in making decisions and determining actions because AI lacks the intuition and emotional context necessary to fully grasp the consequences of military actions.”
Blake stressed that the complexity and unpredictability of warfare require human intuition and experience, elements that AI currently cannot replicate. “Removing humans doesn’t address the contextual understanding of the situation,” he asserted. This human element is crucial in critical situations where the stakes are highest.
One of the primary concerns Blake raised is the potential for algorithmic and inherited biases in AI systems. These biases could lead to the misinterpretation of data and the misidentification of targets, with potentially devastating consequences. Additionally, data limitations in the field could compromise the reliability and real-time accuracy of the information used by AI models, leading to flawed decision-making.
Despite these challenges, Blake acknowledged the valuable role AI can play in supporting human decision-makers. AI excels in simulating scenarios, producing risk assessments, and providing decision-support tools. “AI can assist humans by offering insights and simulations, but the final decisions must remain in human hands,” Blake concluded.
The discussion underscored the need for a balanced approach to integrating AI into military operations. While AI offers significant advantages in data processing and pattern recognition, human judgment remains indispensable in navigating the complexities of warfare. As the defence sector continues to evolve, the collaboration between AI and human decision-makers will be key to ensuring effective and ethical military strategies.