The rapid rise of private defence technology start-ups is reshaping the global arms landscape, raising urgent questions about regulation, accountability, and the future of warfare. A new generation of tech entrepreneurs, unencumbered by traditional defence industry constraints, is developing and deploying advanced weapons systems at an unprecedented pace. This shift, driven by venture capital and a Silicon Valley ethos of speed and secrecy, threatens to outpace oversight and public scrutiny, with potentially devastating consequences—particularly in regions like Africa.
Ethan Thornton, the 21-year-old founder of Mach Industries, exemplifies this new breed of defence innovators. His company, valued at approximately £378 million, has secured significant contracts, including a deal with the US Army to develop AI-powered drones capable of operating in electronically jammed environments. Similarly, Palmer Luckey, the billionaire founder of Anduril Industries, has built a defence empire from a camper trailer, now valued at £2.75 billion. These entrepreneurs operate outside the traditional defence procurement model, relying instead on private investment and agile development cycles.
The implications of this shift are profound. Professor Elke Schwarz of Queen Mary University of London warns that this new wave of defence start-ups is pushing policy toward weaker regulation and oversight. Without robust governance, the rapid deployment of AI-driven weapons risks undermining transparency, accountability, and democratic control. These start-ups are not just developing technology; they are actively shaping the future of warfare, often with minimal public oversight.
The financial backing for these ventures is staggering. Since 2021, investors have poured an estimated £118 billion into defence technology start-ups worldwide. This influx of capital, combined with government anxiety about falling behind in the AI arms race, has created a perfect storm for rapid expansion. Companies like Anduril and Skydio, valued at billions, are securing multi-million-pound contracts for autonomous systems, from submarine drones to battlefield coordination tools. The demand for these lethal technologies is undeniable, but the lack of regulation raises serious concerns about their ethical and strategic implications.
The fear is that Africa will become a testing ground for these unproven technologies before adequate safeguards are in place. Historical precedent suggests this is not an idle concern. The first known deployment of an autonomous drone occurred in Libya in 2020, where a Kargu-2 UCAV was used to target and attack opponents. If unchecked, this trend could escalate, with autonomous weapons deployed under the guise of counterinsurgency or regime change, leaving African populations to bear the brunt of untested and unregulated warfare.
To mitigate these risks, governments must act decisively. Rather than succumbing to a “fear of missing out” in the AI arms race, industrialised nations should prioritise the establishment of enforceable, human-centred governance frameworks. Regulation must not be sacrificed in the name of national security or competition. Instead, rules ensuring meaningful human control in weapons design and pre-market testing of high-risk autonomous systems must be established to curb the dangers of this emerging technology.
The rise of private defence start-ups presents both opportunities and challenges. While innovation in defence technology can enhance military capabilities, the lack of oversight risks destabilising global security. Governments must act now to ensure that the development and deployment of these technologies align with ethical and strategic imperatives, rather than profit-driven agendas. The future of warfare hangs in the balance, and the stakes could not be higher.