Australia’s defence strategy is undergoing a quiet but significant transformation, shifting away from a reliance on a handful of expensive, high-tech platforms towards a more cost-effective, volume-based approach. This evolution is driven by the stark reality that even a wealthy nation like Australia cannot afford to defend its vast maritime territory with a limited number of billion-dollar submarines, frigates, and fighter jets.
The Australian Defence Force (ADF) has been gradually moving towards more affordable options, such as uncrewed aerial and underwater vehicles. Boeing’s Ghost Bat uncrewed aircraft, for instance, costs a fraction of a fifth-generation fighter, while the Ghost Shark uncrewed undersea craft is significantly cheaper than a traditional submarine. However, analysts argue that these initiatives, while promising, do not fully address the need for scalable, high-volume defensive capabilities.
Chris Mills, director of the University of New South Wales’s Defence Research Institute, highlights the potential of sea mines as a game-changer. “Imagine 1000 of these sort of drones or mines that you can target to destroy any shipping that comes through 13 key choke points that govern the main sea routes from the north to Australia,” he says. These autonomous systems, operating in swarms, could effectively interdict enemy task groups or invasion forces, providing a cost-effective deterrent.
The ADF’s recent investment in sea mines, part of Project SEA 2000, underscores this shift. While details about the type, number, and cost of the mines ordered from RWM Italia, a subsidiary of Rheinmetall AG, remain undisclosed, the US Naval Institute estimates that the Royal Australian Navy spent $140 million on mines last year. This investment signals a strategic pivot towards affordable, high-volume solutions that can be rapidly deployed and scaled in times of crisis.
Professor Stephan Fruehling of the Strategic and Defence Institute at the Australian National University notes that defence priorities are quietly shifting. “Are we over-invested in larger platforms? Yes, probably we are, but I do think that’s slowly changing,” he says. However, he cautions that this shift is not necessarily towards cutting-edge technologies like hypersonics. Instead, it is a move towards more practical, cost-effective solutions that can be produced at scale.
Mills emphasizes the importance of production capacity and scalability. “We have to be looking at production lines that have spare capacity … that will enable us to rapidly scale in a time of crisis, and we might have to forgo some of the technological edge just so that we can achieve scale,” he says. The ADF is becoming more flexible about specifications, sourcing more products from civilian production lines to achieve economies of scale and rapid ramp-up capabilities.
This strategic shift is not without its challenges. High-technology solutions, while vital, come with trade-offs. As Jacquelyn Schneider, director of the Wargaming and Crisis Simulation Initiative at the Hoover Institution in the US, notes, the pursuit of advanced technology can lead to weapons that are too expensive and too few to be effective. “The (American) military had ended up in a paradox: chasing emerging technologies had made weapons so expensive that no qualitative upgrade could make up for the decline in quantity, leaving the Pentagon with an arsenal that was neither good enough nor large enough for the campaigns it planned to fight,” she wrote in an essay for Foreign Affairs.
For Australia, the path forward lies in a balanced strategy that combines high-tech solutions with affordable, high-volume systems. This approach not only minimises economic strain but also ensures that the ADF can maintain a credible deterrent capability. As Schneider points out, “It’ll be interesting to see, with so much of the threat in Australia’s backyard, if you become the leader in thinking about these new kind of more defensive technologies.”
This strategic realignment presents a significant opportunity for Australia’s defence industry. By focusing on innovative, cost-effective solutions, Australia can position itself as a leader in developing the next generation of defensive technologies, ensuring its security in an increasingly uncertain world.