Russia’s relentless air campaign against Ukraine has intensified, with Moscow deploying a record 6,200 drones in July alone, according to the latest UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) Intelligence Update. This surge in drone swarms, coupled with advanced missile strikes, underscores a brutal “grind down” strategy aimed at overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses and forcing a breakthrough in the prolonged conflict.
The sheer volume of drones, many of which are decoys, serves a dual purpose: to saturate Ukrainian radar and air defense systems, increasing the likelihood that more expensive and lethal cruise missiles will evade interception. This tactic, while unsophisticated, reflects a deliberate shift in Russian military doctrine—one that prioritises brute force over innovation.
“Russia is doing what they always end up doing in any conflict,” a former NATO intelligence officer told National Security Journal. “They keep pushing and trying to grind you down bit by bit. It’s an overall, long-haul strategy that they can get away with because they believe they will always have more assets—whether people, hardware, or munitions—than the other guy.”
Despite the relentless onslaught, Ukraine’s deep-strike drone campaign continues to inflict significant damage on high-value targets within Russian territory. These strikes have exposed vulnerabilities in Moscow’s air defense systems, particularly around critical infrastructure such as oil refineries, ammunition depots, and defense industrial facilities.
“They will use these larger numbers to overwhelm the Ukrainians if they can,” the former NATO officer added. “It is an unsophisticated strategy, to be sure. It belies these reports we have read for years from Russian military thinkers about Russia’s modern, 21st-century excellence in maneuver warfare capabilities. The massive numbers of new-age weaponry that they were supposed to have been producing for the last decade have also not saved the day for them. Instead, they have taken a giant step backward and are following Stalin’s philosophy of war that says ‘quantity has a quality all its own.’”
Russia’s long-range aviation fleet, primarily consisting of heavy bombers, has maintained a steady operational tempo, despite losses incurred during Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb on June 1, 2025. In July, seven long-range strike packages were flown, launching over 70 missiles and glide bombs. However, Ukraine’s ability to strike deep inside Russian territory has forced Moscow to confront the limitations of its air defense systems.
Senior Kremlin officials have expressed frustration over the military’s inability to thwart these attacks, which have disrupted air travel at major commercial hubs and exposed gaps in Russia’s defensive capabilities. The failure to adequately protect strategic assets has raised questions about the effectiveness of Russia’s much-vaunted air defense technology.
As the conflict enters its third year, the war of attrition continues, with both sides locked in a high-stakes battle of endurance. While Russia relies on sheer numbers to wear down Ukrainian defenses, Ukraine’s targeted drone strikes demonstrate the effectiveness of precision over volume. The outcome of this strategy will likely shape the future of aerial warfare, influencing defence technology development and military doctrine across the globe.
