Ukraine’s military-industrial complex has undergone a radical transformation since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Once dominated by government-led defence contractors, the war has forced Ukraine to innovate at an unprecedented pace, particularly in drone technology. This shift has not only reshaped Ukraine’s defence capabilities but also offers critical lessons for Western militaries that remain largely unheard.
Deborah Fairlamb, an American venture capitalist and co-founder of Green Flag Ventures, has been at the forefront of this transformation. Based in Kyiv, she has witnessed firsthand how Ukraine’s defence sector has evolved from reliance on foreign-supplied weapons to a thriving ecosystem of startups and small firms driving cutting-edge military innovation.
“That is such a huge question,” Fairlamb said when asked about the current state of Ukrainian weapons development. “First and foremost, I would say that the speed of iteration of everything is just extraordinary. I know people think of Ukraine and drones. That tends to mean aerial drones, but Ukrainians have been innovating tremendously, also in ground vehicles and sea vehicles. And it’s not just the drone bodies themselves, it’s all of the components. It’s navigation systems. It’s resistance to electronic warfare. It’s the ability to fly in GPS-denied environments. It’s all of these pieces, in terms of the technology.”
This rapid innovation has been driven by necessity. Ukraine’s defence industry has had to adapt quickly to counter Russian advances, leading to the development of homegrown drones capable of striking deep inside Russian territory. Fairlamb emphasises that this innovation extends beyond drones to include ground and sea vehicles, as well as critical components like navigation and electronic warfare resistance.
One of the most striking aspects of Ukraine’s defence innovation is its decentralised production model. Unlike traditional defence contractors, which rely on large-scale manufacturing, Ukraine has turned to small workshops and 3D printing to produce drones and other military equipment at scale. This decentralised approach has allowed Ukraine to rapidly iterate and deploy new technologies, a capability that Western defence industries, burdened by bureaucratic procurement processes, struggle to match.
“We look at dual-use largely as a business development hedge for startups,” Fairlamb explained. “Primes and big companies have the cash flow to wait it out, but most startups cannot cross the three- to five-year valley of death that exists for companies trying to get through the DoD and MoD procurement pipelines. If they have other markets – police, critical infrastructure security, port monitoring, border control – that they can sell into in the meantime, it gives them the revenue to survive until they get to the big leagues.”
This dual-use approach has allowed Ukrainian startups to sustain themselves while developing military applications, a model that could offer valuable insights for Western defence procurement.
President Zelensky’s ambitious goal of producing 1,000 interceptor drones a day highlights the scale of Ukraine’s defence production capabilities. Fairlamb believes this target is achievable, citing Ukraine’s decentralised manufacturing and 3D printing capabilities.
“The Ukrainian ecosystem in terms of its scale-up capacity has been just extraordinary to watch,” she said. “In 2022, the Ukrainians had almost no homegrown drones. These were all just Mavericks. They were buying off the shelf, making the changes that they needed. And that was sort of the evolution. Then in 2023 was really when you see the emergence of the FPVs [first-person view drones], and those are the ones that the Ukrainians have just been able to produce in mass quantities.”
Fairlamb’s observations raise critical questions for Western militaries. The decentralised, agile approach to defence innovation that Ukraine has adopted stands in stark contrast to the slow, bureaucratic processes that characterise Western defence procurement. If Western governments and militaries fail to adapt, they risk falling behind in the rapidly evolving landscape of modern warfare.
As Ukraine continues to push the boundaries of defence technology, its experiences offer a blueprint for how innovation can be harnessed in times of crisis. The lessons from Ukraine’s defence sector are clear: agility, decentralisation, and dual-use development are key to staying ahead in an era of rapid technological change. For Western militaries, the question is whether they are willing to learn from these lessons before it is too late.
