### The Shifting Tides of European Defence Manufacturing
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, it didn’t just reshape the geopolitical landscape—it also forced a dramatic rethinking of how Europe’s defence industry operates. The sudden surge in demand for ammunition, grenades, and other military supplies quickly overwhelmed existing supply chains, exposing critical vulnerabilities in manufacturing and logistics.
Now, new research from the Swedish Defence University – Institution for War Studies reveals how this crisis has spurred a fundamental transformation in European defence production. In a study published in the *Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies*, lead author Roland Hellberg examines how states, companies, and supranational bodies are adapting to meet unprecedented demand while building resilience against future disruptions.
### From Transactions to Trust
For decades, defence contracts were largely transactional—states and suppliers negotiated deals on a project-by-project basis, with little long-term collaboration. But as Ukraine’s war dragged on, this model proved insufficient.
“Trust-based agreements are replacing short-term contracts,” says Hellberg. “Companies and governments are now prioritising resilience and flexibility over cost efficiency alone.”
This shift is evident in the growing number of strategic partnerships between European defence firms, as well as deeper collaboration between public and private sectors. The European Union has also played a key role, coordinating efforts to ensure steady supply chains across member states.
### Reshaping the Defence Industrial Base
The study highlights how this transformation is altering the very structure of the defence industry. Traditional boundaries between manufacturers and suppliers are blurring as companies integrate operations to streamline production.
“This isn’t just about filling gaps in the short term,” explains Hellberg. “It’s about building a sustainable, adaptive industrial base that can scale up rapidly when needed.”
Sweden, a key supplier of arms to Ukraine, emerges as a case study in this evolution. The country’s defence industry has expanded production and forged closer ties with European allies to maintain consistent output. Similar adjustments are happening across the continent, though challenges remain in harmonising regulations and allocating resources.
### What Comes Next?
The research suggests that the defence industry’s shift toward resilience will have lasting effects. For one, it could lead to a more decentralised manufacturing model, with multiple small-scale production sites rather than a few large factories. This would reduce the risk of single points of failure and make supply chains more adaptable.
Additionally, supranational governance bodies like the EU may take on a larger role in coordinating production, ensuring that critical capabilities are maintained across member states.
### A Model for the Future
This transformation isn’t limited to Europe or even to defence. The lessons learned here could apply to other critical industries—such as energy, where supply chain disruptions have similarly exposed vulnerabilities.
As Hellberg concludes, the Ukraine war has acted as a catalyst, accelerating changes that were already underway. The result is a more collaborative, resilient defence industrial ecosystem—one that is better prepared for future challenges.
For the defence sector, this means deeper partnerships, faster response times, and a stronger ability to meet demand in crisis situations. The question now is whether these changes can be sustained—or if they will fade once the war in Ukraine ends.
One thing is clear: the way Europe produces and delivers military equipment will never be the same.
